The market in brief
The breaking news of October is the sudden stop of rainfall from the end of September to now in most of the Sahelian belt. This early end of the rainy season partly reduce the prospect of very good harvests in West Africa. Late sowings and long cycle varieties may particularly suffer of lack of water at end of their production cycle.
Despite the starting of harvests in many producing areas, grain prices remained relatively stable during October because stocks continue to decrease while new output came slowly into the market;
About rice production, significant differences are observed between the various countries of the sub region. In Benin, the production should have a net decline unlike Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Guinea, where it should increase thanks to policies to support the production of rice and relatively good weather.
In most countries of West Africa, this month of October was characterized by low availability of residual supply of maize, millet and sorghum and the slow emergence of new maize millet and sorghum;
Overall, in the coming weeks, the grain supply is expected to increase in most countries and thus cause a fall in prices. However, the lack of rain in October, changed the forecasts for 2017. As the production, should not increase as much as expected and consumption should increase faster, prices could go up significantly during 2017.